Jensen Savage Featured in Morning Brew's "Brew Markets" Newsletter: A Deeper Dive into Retail Behavior & Consumer Sentiment
I’m thrilled to share that I was recently featured in Brew Markets, Morning Brew’s daily markets newsletter, in an article titled “Shoppers are splurging, but feel bad about it.” Here's part of the excerpt where I was quoted:
“Sales data captures present realities, and sentiment tends to reflect future intent,” said Jensen Savage, CEO of Savage Growth Partners. “Big‑ticket or event‑driven purchases can spike spending even if people feel anxious overall.”
“Consumers are anticipating rising costs,” said Savage. “So it would make sense to see consumers front-loading purchases with a ‘buy now before prices increase’ mentality.”
This quote anchors a critical economic paradox: while Americans may be feeling jittery, the numbers show undeniably strong spending behavior.
But I'd love to unpack why that matters..
What the Insight Reveals: Consumer Behavior in Focus
1. The Divergence Between Feeling and Acting
Consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, dropped 5% from July to August, breaking a four‑month streak of stability
Conversely, retail sales in July increased 0.5%, and June’s numbers were revised upwards to 0.9%
This gap between mood and behavior underscores a critical point: economic confidence lags actual spending. Decision-making can, and often does, override emotional caution when incentives align.
2. Buying Now: Anxiety Meets Opportunity
It’s not just about need: it’s about anticipation. Rising expectations of future price increases encourage people to act now, even when they’d rather wait.
This anticipatory "buy now" mindset is particularly potent when it comes to big-ticket goods: cars (+1.6%) and furniture (+1.4%) were the biggest winners among thirteen tracked categories in July .
Simultaneously, categories like home improvement (-1.0%), electronics (-0.6%), and dining out (-0.4%) trailed, reflecting where people choose to cut back when sentiment sours.
3. The Power of Event-Driven Spending
Emotional or event-driven purchases, or big sales like Amazon's Prime Day, can spur unexpected spending spikes, even amid broader economic concerns.
The “feel-bad-but-swipe-anyway” dynamic is real: consumers may complain, but they’re still clicking “buy.”
Contextualizing the Data: Why It Matters to Businesses
Marketing & Promotions
When sentiment wanes, well-timed sales or value offers can trigger action. Businesses that lean into limited-time promotions, even if they sense consumer worry, can still see strong engagement and strong marketing results.Product Priorities Shift
Big-ticket items with perceived urgency (like cars amid looming tariffs or EV credit changes) can outperform. In your advisory work, this suggests focusing on sectors where consumers feel they must act now.Segmented Spend Behavior
Splurges in some categories don’t translate across the board. Understanding that discretionary vs necessity-based spending may diverge helps brands tailor messaging and inventory.
TL;DR
Sales & Sentiment Disconnect: Consumers may feel anxious but continue to spend.
"Buy Now" Mindset: Anticipated cost increases drive front-loaded purchases of big-ticket
Promo Power: Strategic promotions and event timing can offset weak sentiment.
Category Trends: Spending trends differ dramatically between sectors, so target wisely.
Being featured in Brew Markets was exciting, and it reinforced the narrative I always emphasize: consumer behavior is nuanced. Feeling uncertain doesn’t mean inactivity; it often signals the opposite. Whether you're a business assessing demand, or a consumer resisting, recognizing the dissonance between sentiment and spending is key to understanding today's economy.
